​Claudia Sahm’s Recession-Denial-Theory Flunks A Simple Data Test – Tyler Durden

Claudia Sahm’s Recession-Denial-Theory Flunks A Simple Data Test Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, Claudia Sahm claims to have invented a recession indicator created by Ed McKelvey. Now she says the indicator is wrong. Let’s investigate. Data from the BLS, chart by Mish What is the McKelvey Recession Indicator? Take the current value of the 3-month unemployment rate average, subtract the 12-month low, and if the difference is 0.30 percentage point or more, then a recession has started. Edward McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, created the indicator. Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve and White House Economist, modified…  — Continue at ZeroHedge News : Read More