​Key Recession Indicator Gives Stronger Recession Signal In August – Tyler Durden

Key Recession Indicator Gives Stronger Recession Signal In August Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com, A modified McKelvey recession indicator with no false positives or false negatives since 1953 suggests we are in recession now. 100 percent of the time, with no false positives or negatives, under current conditions, the economy has been in recession. What is the McKelvey Recession Indicator? Take the current value of the 3-month unemployment rate average, subtract the 12-month low, and if the difference is 0.30 percentage point or more, then a recession has started. Edward McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, created the…  — Continue at ZeroHedge News : Read More